Which European countries may be the richest by 2030?
New forecasts from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) show that income per person is expected to rise across Europe by 2030. This income is measured using GDP per capita, which is a common way to compare how strong different economies are. Most countries are expected to grow, but this does not always mean big changes in rankings. Many countries are improving at the same time, so their positions compared to each other may stay similar.
GDP per capita shows the average income per person in a country. It helps us understand how wealthy a country is. However, just looking at the number is not always enough. It is also important to see where a country stands compared to others. Even if a country’s income rises, it may not move higher in the rankings if other countries are also growing quickly.
To better understand future trends, Euronews Business looked at IMF projections for 2025 and 2030. These projections include both nominal GDP per capita (in euros) and purchasing power parity (PPP). PPP is important because it adjusts for the cost of living in each country. This means it shows what people can actually buy with their money, not just how much they earn.
By 2030, Ireland is expected to have the highest GDP per capita when measured using PPP. This means it could move ahead of Luxembourg, which is expected to be in first place in 2025. However, Ireland’s data comes with an important warning. The country’s economy is strongly influenced by large multinational companies. These companies can make the economy look bigger than it really is for everyday people.
Because of this, some experts believe another measure, called gross national income (GNI), gives a clearer picture of Ireland’s real economy. GNI focuses more on income earned by residents of the country. According to World Bank data, Ireland would not rank as high if GNI were used instead of GDP.
Apart from Ireland and Luxembourg, other countries are expected to stay near the top. Norway, Switzerland, and Denmark are likely to remain among the five richest countries in Europe. Their positions are expected to stay stable between 2025 and 2030.
When we look at Europe’s largest economies, the picture is different. Germany is expected to rank highest among them, but only at 12th place. France is likely to be around 15th, and the United Kingdom around 16th. Italy may rank 18th, while Spain could be the lowest among the five largest economies at around 22nd place.
At the lower end of the rankings, many countries are those that want to join the European Union. These are called candidate countries. Ukraine, Kosovo, and Moldova are expected to be among the lowest-ranked countries by 2030. However, Turkey is an exception. It is expected to rank higher than some EU members, including Bulgaria, Latvia, and Greece.
Most countries are not expected to move much in the rankings. Around 15 countries may keep the same position between 2025 and 2030. Greece is expected to see the biggest drop, falling a few places. On the other hand, Cyprus may improve its position the most. Still, no country is expected to move more than three places up or down.
There are also clear differences between rankings based on nominal GDP and PPP. Some countries, such as Malta, Romania, Poland, and Turkey, rank much higher when PPP is used. This means that although their incomes may look lower in euros, the cost of living is also lower, so people can buy more with their money.
On the other hand, countries like Estonia, the United Kingdom, Iceland, and Latvia rank lower when PPP is considered. This suggests that even though incomes may be higher, the cost of living is also high, reducing real purchasing power.
At the top of the list, Ireland and Luxembourg stand far ahead of other countries. By 2030, their GDP per capita is expected to be much higher than the rest. Ireland could reach around $182,000 per person, while Luxembourg may reach about $167,000. These numbers are much higher than those of other European countries.
Norway and Switzerland are expected to follow, each with more than $115,000 per person. Denmark is also expected to do well, leading among EU countries after Ireland and Luxembourg. However, there is still a large gap within the EU. For example, Denmark’s income per person could be almost double that of Greece, which is expected to have one of the lowest figures among EU members.
Among the largest economies, Germany is expected to have the highest purchasing power, while Spain may have the lowest. The difference between them could be around 30%, showing that even big economies can have very different income levels.
Outside the EU, the situation is more challenging. Most candidate countries are expected to have GDP per capita below $50,000. Some may even fall below $30,000, which is much lower than EU countries. This shows a large gap between EU members and those still waiting to join.
When looking at nominal GDP per capita in euros, the differences are even bigger. By 2030, income per person could range from just over €7,000 in Ukraine to more than €150,000 in Luxembourg. This gap is much larger than what PPP figures suggest.
Within the EU, Bulgaria is expected to have the lowest GDP per capita. Even when excluding Luxembourg and Ireland, there are still big differences between countries. Denmark, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Austria are expected to rank among the top EU countries in terms of income.
Germany may be the only one among the five largest economies to make it into the top ten. The United Kingdom is expected to be just outside the top ten, but still close.
Some non-EU countries are also expected to perform very well. Switzerland, Iceland, and Norway could all rank among the top five in Europe. These countries have strong economies and high living standards, which help them stay near the top.
Overall, the pattern across Europe is clear. Countries in Northern and Western Europe are expected to remain the richest. Meanwhile, Eastern European countries and EU candidate countries are likely to stay behind, although many of them are growing.
In conclusion, Europe’s economic future looks positive, with most countries expected to see rising incomes by 2030. However, the rankings are not expected to change dramatically. The richest countries today are likely to remain at the top, while poorer countries will continue to catch up slowly. The gap between different parts of Europe will still exist, but steady growth across the continent suggests gradual improvement for many nations.
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