A Big Year for Gold: Could Prices Keep Rising in 2026?
Gold had a remarkable year in 2025, rising more than 60%, thanks to geopolitical tensions, lower interest rates, and strong demand from central banks. Many experts believe gold could continue rising in 2026, as it remains a trusted safe-haven investment.
After breaking over 50 records last year, investors are now wondering if gold can keep climbing in 2026. It led the major asset classes in 2025, making it one of the best years for gold since 1979. While some analysts see further potential, others warn of risks.
Unlike past years when a single event drove gold prices, multiple factors influenced its rise in 2025. These included continued central bank buying, ongoing geopolitical issues, trade uncertainty, lower interest rates, and a weaker US dollar. Together, these factors boosted demand for gold as a safe investment.
The World Gold Council (WGC) reported that geopolitical tensions added about 12 percentage points to gold’s gains, while a weaker dollar and slightly lower rates contributed 10 points. Momentum and investor behavior added nine points, and economic growth added another 10. Central banks kept buying heavily, keeping official demand high.
The WGC expects many of the same factors to influence gold in 2026. However, the situation is different now. Gold prices have already factored in expectations of stable global growth, moderate US rate cuts, and a steady dollar.
In this environment, gold seems fairly priced. Real interest rates are no longer falling much, the benefits of holding gold are neutral, and the strong momentum from 2025 has slowed. Investors are now more balanced in their risk appetite, rather than being overly cautious or overly optimistic.
Gold Outlook for 2026
In its main scenario, the World Gold Council (WGC) expects gold to trade in a narrow range in 2026, with changes likely between –5% and +5%.
However, the future is uncertain, and three different scenarios could lead to bigger moves.
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Mild slowdown: If the economy grows slowly and the Fed cuts rates further, gold could rise 5%–15% as investors move to safer assets, continuing 2025’s gains.
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Deep recession: In a severe downturn, gold could jump 15%–30% thanks to aggressive monetary easing, falling Treasury yields, and strong demand for safe-haven assets.
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Economic growth boost: If policies under the Trump administration succeed in boosting growth, higher yields and a stronger dollar could reduce gold’s appeal. In this case, gold might fall 5%–20%, especially if investor demand weakens.
Wall Street Predictions
Even though the WGC’s outlook is cautious, big investment banks see potential for gold to rise in 2026:
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J.P. Morgan Private Bank: $5,200–$5,300 per ounce, driven by strong demand.
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Goldman Sachs: Around $4,900 per ounce, supported by central bank buying.
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Deutsche Bank: $3,950–$4,950, with a base case of $4,450.
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Morgan Stanley: Around $4,500, but warns of short-term volatility.
Central banks, especially in emerging markets, continue to buy gold, and many investors are still underexposed. Low real yields and global risks make gold attractive as a portfolio hedge.
However, there are risks that could limit gains. A stronger US recovery or higher inflation could delay rate cuts, raising yields and the dollar, which usually pressures gold. Reduced ETF or central bank buying, and higher supply from recycling (especially in India), could also weigh on prices.
Looking Ahead
While another big surge like 2025’s 60% jump seems unlikely, gold starts 2026 from a strong position. Its key strengths—macroeconomic uncertainty, central bank diversification, and protection against market volatility—remain.
Even if gold isn’t in the early stage of a rally, it still offers investors safety and resilience in uncertain times.
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